June 24, 2022


June 14th: Illinois Republican Primary Polls: Darren Bailey is well-positioned to win the upcoming GOP Primary race

On June 28th, Illinois will be voting to elect the Republican face for the November 8th Governor election. The current Governor of Illinois J. B. Pritzker (Democratic) faces almost no competition in the Dems’ Primary Race but the Republican side of the Primary Race has turned out to be a competitive one.

Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, who has been leading in the polls initially is now trailing his nearest GOP rival, Darren Bailey. The latest poll comes as a shocker for Irvin as the polls give Bailey a 15 points lead over Irvin.

As per the latest news, Irvin has been mainly concentrating on the Chicago market lately as half of the Republican voters reside in the region. Here are the latest Illinois Republican Primary Polls:

IL GOV POLL

Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin had maintained a comfortable lead over Darren Bailey before the poll number for the month of June came. The very first poll showing Darren Bailey’s lead over Irvin was released on June 2nd. The poll gave a 7% lead to Bailey. the latest poll for the upcoming Republican Primary Race was on June 7th. As per the poll, Bailey has a massive 15% lead over Irvin. Considering the poll to be true, for Richard Irvin to cover a 15 points gap in 15 days may be quite impossible.

Illinois Republican Primary Polls: Reason Behind Irvin Trailing Bailey

Richard Irvin has been one of the strongest Republican candidates who could prove to be a threat to the incumbent Governor J B Pritzker. However, as per the latest poll numbers, Bailey might register a surprise win in the upcoming GOP Primary election. The reasons behind Irvin trailing Bailey are:

  1. The poll number for Richard Irvin started to tumble after the latest ABC7 Debate. In the debate, Irvin seemed to be in the back seat as he was attacked by his GOP rivals.
  2. One of the main reasons for the sudden fall of Irvin could be the meddling by the incumbent Governor JB Pritzker in the GOP Primary race. As per the news article by Fox32, sources close to Irvin said that there is unprecedented meddling by the current Governor JB Pritzker. As per the news, Gov. JB Pritzker and his allies are spending $32 million trying to defeat Irvin.

Illinois Republican Primary Polls: Google Search Trend

The overall trends are in favor of Richard Irvin but if we consider the last 3 days, Darren Bailey has narrowed the gap and has been ahead of Richard Irvin at some instances in the last 3 days.

Date

Richard Irvin

Darren Bailey

Last 7 Days

64%

36%

Illinois Republican Primary Polls: Net Sentiment

Date

Richard Irvin

Darren Bailey

Last 7 Days

-36.2%

-4.0%

Illinois Republican Primary Polls: Verdict

Richard Irvin is struggling and this is not just reflected in the poll numbers but also in Google search trends and the net sentiment. Richard Irvin had been ahead of Darren Bailey in polls, and Google trends and his sentiments were also better than Darren Bailey before June 2022. Now looking at the poll numbers and the surge of Darren Bailey, it shows, that Bailey is heading for a win in the upcoming Illinois GOP race.

The net sentiments of Irvin are worse compared to Bailey’s net sentiments. Therefore, we can conclude that Bailey has an advantage over Irvin in the upcoming GOP Primary election.

Read: 2022 Wyoming House Race Polls

Illinois Republican Primary Polls



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