June 26, 2022


Iowa Polls: Grassley, 89 this year, is running for a staggering 8th term in the senate. In GOP field for the upcoming Primary election, not much competition is expected.

In Democratic Party’s field, Abby Finkenauer and Michael Franken are in a close fight as per the latest polls. Our data suggest the upcoming Democratic Party’s Primary election will have a wire finish. Currently, Michael Franken is ahead of Abby Finkenauer marginally.

The Iowa General election will be held on November 8th, 2022. The current incumbent Chuck Grassley, a Republican has held this seat since 1980, the year Ronald Reagan won his first term. He is running for an eighth term and he has traditionally won this swingy state by large margins.

Chuck Grassley received just 60% of the vote the first time he ran in 2016. 2016 was in fact his closest race, as polarization brought down his margins. He still won by 24 points as Trump won the state by around 9 points.

Iowa Senate Polls: Candidates in the primaries

Republican Party

  • Jim Carlin, state senator (2017–present)
  • Chuck Grassley, incumbent U.S. Senator (1981–present)

Democratic Party

  • Abby Finkenauer
  • Michael T. Franken
  • Glenn Hurst

Iowa Senate Race 2022 Polls: Latest Polls (Democratic Party)

Iowa Senate Race Polls 2022: Google Trends

Date

Abby Finkenauer

Michael Franken

Glenn Hurst

May 31st

67%

20%

13%

May 18

47%

40%

13%

Iowa Polls 2022: Net Sentiments

Date

Abby Finkenauer

Michael Franken

Glenn Hurst

May 31st

-1.0%

+100%

+23.3%

Iowa Polls: Latest Polls (Republican Party)

No polls have been conducted for the Republican primary election. The Republican primary is not competitive so do not expect any new polls here. The incumbent Governor Chuck Grassley may again dominate the GOP field in the upcoming Primary race.

Iowa Senate Polls 2022: Google Trends

Charles Ernest Grassley

Jim Carlin

May 31st

92%

8%

May 18th

93%

7%

Iowa Senate Race Polls 2022: Net Sentiments

Chuck Grassley

Jim Carlin

May 31st

-76.8%

52.4%

May 18th

-27.3%

7%

Iowa Polls 2022: Latest Tweets

Iowa Senate Polls 2022: Latest Videos

Iowa Election Polls: Racial Demographics of the Voting Age Population (VAP)

Demographic

Proportion

White-American

85.5%

Hispanic-American

5.5%

African-American

4.2%

Asian-American

2.8%

Native-American

1.6%

The data is from the 2020 census. Iowa is one of the whitest states in the nation and has a relatively low college-educated population. This has fuelled its rightward swing since 2016. It swung 15 points to the Republicans between 2012 and 2016, one of the largest swings in the country. Like its neighbour Ohio, it backed Obama twice before going for Trump twice. Florida is the only other state to do the same.

Trump solidified his gains in the rural areas of the state, while the Des Moines metro area swung against him. Dallas County, the most educated in the state, has swung 10 points from 2012. This mirrors trends in other states. The long term outlook looks bleak for the Democrats here. It would appear they have more room to fall in the rural areas while there are simply not enough non-white voters for Democrats to win to cut down Republican margins.

Republicans now hold 3 out of Iowa’s 4 Congressional Districts both its Senate seats, both houses of the state legislature as well as the Governor’s mansion. Given Iowa’s demographics, Republican dominance of the state looks set to continue.

Iowa Senate Race 2022 Polls: General Election

All prognosticators agree that this race is not competitive: Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and RCP rate the race as “Safe Republican”.

Do not expect Democrats to invest as many resources here after their disappointing 2020 where they hoped to oust Joni Ernst, Iowa’s other Republican Senator. The race was considered a “toss-up” but Ernst won by a larger than expected 6.5 points as Trump won the state by high single digits yet again.

Iowa Primary Election 2022 Polls

Read: California Governor Polls 2022



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